Real-time NOAA space weather predictions
Aurora Forecast & KP Index Trends
Monitor 3-hour KP index forecasts and trends. See if geomagnetic storm activity is rising, falling, or stable to plan your aurora viewing.
Current Geomagnetic Conditions
Use the probability calculator to check real-time KP index and trend indicators for your location. Also view the aurora oval map to see predicted visibility zones, and monitor solar activity for storm potential.
Rising Activity
KP index increasing over the past 3 hours. Aurora probability improving. Good time to watch the sky.
Stable Activity
KP index holding steady. Conditions unchanged from the past 3 hours. Consistent aurora visibility.
Falling Activity
KP index decreasing over the past 3 hours. Aurora probability declining. Storm may be ending.
Understanding KP Index
What is KP Index?
The KP index measures geomagnetic storm activity on a scale of 0-9. It indicates how disturbed the Earth's magnetic field is, which directly correlates with aurora visibility.
Higher KP values mean stronger auroras visible at lower latitudes.
KP Index Scale
- KP 0-2: Quiet conditions, aurora only at high latitudes
- KP 3-4: Minor storm, aurora visible in northern regions
- KP 5-6: Moderate storm, aurora visible mid-latitudes
- KP 7-8: Strong storm, widespread aurora visibility
- KP 9: Severe storm, aurora visible at low latitudes
How Trends Help
Monitoring KP trends over 3-hour periods helps you:
- Know if conditions are improving or worsening
- Plan optimal viewing times
- Decide whether to stay outside or wait
- Understand storm progression
Rising trends during evening hours often indicate the best viewing opportunities.
Aurora Probability Guide
0–10% · No visibility
11–30% · Low probability
31–60% · Moderate chance
61–100% · High visibility
Frequently Asked Questions
What is KP Index?
The KP index measures geomagnetic storm activity on a scale of 0-9. It indicates how disturbed the Earth's magnetic field is, which directly correlates with aurora visibility. Higher KP values mean stronger auroras visible at lower latitudes.
What does rising KP trend mean?
A rising KP trend indicates that the KP index is increasing over the past 3 hours, meaning aurora probability is improving. This is a good time to watch the sky as geomagnetic activity is strengthening.
How do KP trends help with aurora viewing?
Monitoring KP trends over 3-hour periods helps you know if conditions are improving or worsening, plan optimal viewing times, decide whether to stay outside or wait, and understand storm progression. Rising trends during evening hours often indicate the best viewing opportunities.
Get Forecast Alerts
Never miss a geomagnetic storm. Get smart notifications when KP index rises and aurora becomes visible at your location.
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